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Frequently Asked Questions, Answers & Instructions
I like to teach. I like to get up in front of groups and explain the inner workings of the options market so people just like you can profit from options. I've been accused of talking too much.
But I like to make sure that when you have a question, you get a complete answer. Whether they're novices with questions about how to get started, or professionals who are looking for a way to enhance their own trading systems, the questions people ask have helped me improve my teaching and my services.
As you get started with ODDS High Accuracy, I encourage you to let me know if you have questions about the service or the recommendations. Now that you're on board, I thought you might benefit from hearing some of the most commonly asked questions about this service, along with detailed instructions on how to use the service.
Q. What exactly is ODDS High Accuracy?
A. It is a premium recommendation service with precise entry and exit instructions.
All new potential recommendations are posted to a private, secure web site every day the market is open by no later than 8:45 am ET. There can be a new potential recommendation any day of the week, so be sure to check in each and every trading day so you don't miss anything.
Once a recommendation is confirmed as filled, they will be tracked in an Open Position web page with up to date follow-up instructions every trading day. While the recommendations are not delivered by email, in some circumstances "Special Alerts" that will provide important updates in between the recommendations could be sent by email, if conditions warrant.
Q. Do you email me the recommendations?
A. Email is convenient, its reliability is not 100%. Instead, we post the recommendations to a private, secure web site each day before the market opens. So it's best for you to check the web site every day for updates on all trades, which takes only minutes.
Only if a "Special Alert" is deemed necessary will we attempt to send an email relating to this service. You should get in the habit of logging in daily to be certain you get all updates and alerts in a timely fashion. Updates happen at 8:45 am ET each trading day.
Q. Upon what trading methodology is ODDS High Accuracy based?
A. The methodology is based almost entirely on the high probability index options trading system I've been teaching for over two decades. Details of this particular method were taught from start to finish in my Options Wizardry From A to Z course, which was first offered to the public in 1998. Over the years I added several minor enhancements to make the trading process even easier.
And my basic high probability method has a multi-decade history of success. Winning percentages over 90% tell how well the results have been.
Q. Are you in the market all the time, or are there lengthy dead periods?
A. We try to be in the market at all times, however, market conditions will vary. There are times when it is not appropriate to enter a high probability trade, but we don't anticipate that there would be lengthy periods where we're idle.
If, however, the potential profits from doing these option trades is so low that it does not make sense to enter a trade, we will elect to stand aside. The good news is that if we don't provide you with profitable trades prior to that particular 3rd Friday expiration, we do not charge you.
Always log in to see all instructions or look for changes and updates every trading day.
Q. How do you identify your trades?
A. It's actually a relatively simple process, once you know what to do. Basically, we use the exact high probability method I've taught in my courses for over 27 years. Although the calculations are easy, they can be tedious. And for newcomers, they can seem overwhelming.
Every morning that the market is open, at no later than 8:45 am ET, I'll do the work for you to give you the exact trade to take along with the exact entry price plus updates on current open positions if applicable.
Q. If I do not get filled on the spread recommendation, what do I do next?
A.The instructions are posted each morning the markets are open. If you do not get filled at the minimum net credit limit price shown, log in each morning to see if new instructions say to continue to try to get filled at the recommended net credit limit or to cancel trying and wait for the next new trade.
We do not recommend using good till canceled orders. We recommend using day only, limit orders and be sure to check the service every trading morning for new updates.
Q. Is there a performance guarantee?
A. Yes! The guarantee is built in. We do not bill your fee of $99 unless we've provided you with profitable trades for that expiration date, which falls on the 3rd Friday of each month. Some trades may expire at anytime during the month, some in only 2 days but some up to a few weeks, but it's the cumulative net profit for that billing period that the fee is based upon.
ODDS High Accuracy performance measurements and billing periods are measured on a 3rd Friday of the month expiration basis. Subscriptions are billed after the 3rd Friday of each month.
Your initial $1 payment gives you access to all trade recommendations from the moment your subscription is accepted up to 21 days.
Once that initial period has past, payment is dependent on the performance of the trade recommendations issued to subscribers on the private, secure web site.
If the trades produced by the system for an expiration that are kept in the model portfolio are not profitable during the billing period, no fees will be assessed for that expiration.
However, if the model portfolio shows a cumulative net profit for the billing period (that is, the sum of the percent returns for a particular billing period is positive before fees and commissions), you will be charged $99. The charge will be made to the card you used when you first enrolled.
If you are subscribed, to avoid this charge you must cancel your subscription prior to 5:00 pm ET on Thursday, the day before the 3rd Friday of the month expiration. Be sure to check the agreement/enrollment form for more details if needed.
Q. Can I implement the ODDS High Accuracy trade recommendations using an online brokerage?
A.Yes, most online brokers now give you the capability to enter all the necessary information to implement the trades correctly. Just make sure your online brokerage provides you the ability to enter your order with the correct data (i.e.: credit spread or iron condor, which market and symbols), emphasize the "net credit" amount (never accept less than the minimum credit), and place as a "limit" order good for the day only. If you are not filled that day, continue to log in to check instructions to see if you should continue, as the exact parameters for trades are given each day.
Q. Are there any qualifications required?
A. There are no qualifications required to subscribe. If you want to subscribe in order to learn, that's fine with us. But if you want to trade the recommendations, you will need to check with your broker to make sure you can trade credit spreads with options on delivery settled assets.
Q. Does this require margin?
A. Yes. When you put on a trade, you post margin representing the maximum risk in the trade. When the trade is closed out, your margin is released.
Q. How much money do I need to use ODDS High Accuracy?
A. We don't have a minimum account size recommendation. As stated above, there are no requirements for you to receive the recommendations. You can subscribe to this service just to learn. If, however, you do trade, you'll need to open a brokerage account.
The margin for a recommended trade can be anywhere from $50 to $500 per spread, but bottom line number will depend upon the volatility of the markets at the time. One thing to be aware of for those of you contemplating trading with a small account: commissions may eat up a disproportionate share of your profits.
Q. Is the maximum loss potential greater than the maximum profit potential?
A. Yes. The thing to realize is that these trades are very high probability of winning trades. The type of movement required for a maximum loss is extremely rare. That's not to say we can't lose, or that an event like that can't happen. It can, which is why we use spreads. But the likelihood of a max loss is remote, while the likelihood of a win has a very high probability.
Q. How do I access the trades?
A. Go to www.donfishback.com and press the LOGIN button. You’ll be asked to enter your email address and your password. That’s all there is to it.
Q. What if I still have questions regarding the ODDS High Accuracy service?
A. One of the benefits of the ODDS High Accuracy service is that I have a highly trained staff to help you with any questions you have about how to act on my advice and recommendations. They don't just answer the phones to take address corrections. They also trade. I encourage you to take advantage of this service by calling the Technical Support Hotline at 859-224-4424, or by sending an email to email@example.com. The support staff will help you with any additional questions that you may have.
We do ask, however, that you take the time to go through ALL of the Frequently Asked Questions & Instructions first. Most of the time you will find your questions answered there.
Q. What does an options spread recommendation look like?
A. Here's an example of an options ETF trade recommendation:
At the top is the date. Below that are the table headings. Let’s go left to right. First is the ticker for the underlying asset. An underlying asset is the thing upon which the options are based. In almost all instances, the asset is going to the SPDR® S&P 500® ETF (ticker: SPY). After that comes the ETF price. Next are the two factors each trade needs to meet before being considered: Return Potential and Volatility Escalation. If either of these are yellow or red, we will not issue a recommendation.
Last but not least is the trade itself. This is a 2-way spread, otherwise known as a put credit spread. There are 2 components to the spread. We are selling a put and and buying a further out-of-the-money put. Pay attention to the expiration date which can be anywhere from 2 days to several weeks to expiration, plus the net credit. The net credit is very important. You want to be filled on the trade but only if you can get the minimum net credit or better. DO NOT accept less than the minimum net credit shown. Place all orders as 'limit orders', good for the day only.
Q. If I get filled on the spread recommendation, what do I do next?
A. One of the nice things about this service is that I do all of the work for you. If a new recommendation is filled, I will always follow up with exit instructions that you can give your broker.
I post follow-up instructions to a private, secure Open Positions page that you can access any time you wish. Here is what the Open Position page would have looked like the morning after the recommendation was issued:
At the top, you'll find the date. Below that is the table with the open positions. We display the date, the ETF ticker symbol, the recommendation (including the recommended credit), the fill price, the closing price of the spread the prior trading day, the closing price of the ETF, and finally any instructions. Notice the new trade given says 'pending'. Once the trade is confirmed as filled, the fill price will be posted where you see 'pending'.
I will notify you by posting new complete instructions telling you exactly what trades to exit and what trades to enter. Just remember to log in EVERY trading day to see if any new instructions have been posted or have changed.
Q. What type of exit instructions do you give for spread trades?
A. I always tell people that it's important to treat trading like a business -- and I do! The important thing to remember about exiting is that I'm always looking out for you.
Each time we need to exit a position prior to expiration, I will post the instructions on the Open Positions page no later than 8:45 a.m. ET, to be sure you are aware that a position needs to be closed down. That said, I urge you to get into the habit of logging in daily to see if updated instructions have been provided.
Q. What is the typical duration of a trade?
A. We look for option trades whose expiration date is anywhere from 2 days to several weeks. That does not mean we remain in the trade that long. Sometimes we close out a position prior to expiration if the profits are too juicy to pass up. This flexibility allows us to find the right trade at the right time.
Q. How many trades are typically open at any one time?
A. The number of open trades will be variable based on market conditions. When implied volatility in the market is very high, we can look for shorter term expirations. The same is true for when implied volatility is lower, weekly and shorter expirations may not provide enough credit to justify taking the risk so we can look at the next monthly expiration.
With the flexibility to adapt to market conditions we can provide you with the most opportunities to trade high probability credit spreads.
Q. What do I do if there is overlap in the strike price of an old trade with the strike price in a new trade?
A. Because we may have multiple trades that expire at one expiration in ODDS High Accuracy this can happen, but not very often and you don't need to worry. You don't need to take the new trade in a different account. If there is overlap in the strike prices, you will be closing one leg of an existing position and adding a new leg to the position. For example: If I had a trade where I sold the 250 Put and bought the 247 Put for a credit of 0.25. My reward would be $25 per contract and my risk would be $275 for a 9% profit. Now when I get a new trade that asks me to sell the 253 Put and buy the 250 Put at the same expiration for a credit of $25. Instead of having 2 positions in my account I will have only one, but my risk and reward will be identical to my potential of doing both trades in different accounts.
Some brokers have you place the order specifying buy to open and sell to open or buy to close and sell to close. If your broker does this you may need to be careful how you enter the order. In this situation, I would place the order to buy to close the 250 put that I sold and sell the 253 put to open for a net credit of 0.25. My previous trade was a 3-point wide credit spread. After this order is filled, I would have one 6-point wide credit spread instead of two 3-point wide credit spreads.
I would have collected $50 of credit per contract total and my risk would be $550, exactly as if I had done the trades separately in different accounts.
Fishback Management and Research, Inc. (FMR), its principles and employees reserve the right to, and indeed do, trade stocks, mutual funds, options and futures for their own accounts. FMR, its principals and employees will not knowingly trade in advance of the general dissemination of trading ideas and recommendations. There is, however, a possibility that when trading for these proprietary accounts, orders may be entered, which are opposite or otherwise different from the trades and positions described herein. This may occur as a result of the use of different trading systems, trading with a different degree of leverage, or testing of new trading systems, among other reasons. The results of any such trading are confidential and are not available for inspection.
This publication, in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, retransmitted, disseminated, sold, distributed, published, broadcast or circulated to anyone without the express prior written permission of FMR except by bona fide news organizations quoting brief passages for purposes of review.
Due to the number of sources from which the information contained in ODDS High Accuracy Options is obtained, and the inherent risks of distribution, there may be omissions or inaccuracies in such information and services. FMR, its employees and contributors take every reasonable step to insure the integrity of the data. However, FMR, its owners and employees and contributors cannot and do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, currentness or fitness for a particular purpose of the information contained in ODDS High Accuracy Options.
OPTIONS INVOLVE RISK AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS
PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS
Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. You can access the Options Disclosure Document at
SOME OF THE TRADE EXAMPLES IN OUR COURSES AND NEWSLETTERS AND NEARLY ALL OF THE HISTORICAL EXAMPLES CONTAINED IN THE MARKETING MATERIALS INCLUDE HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLES FOR ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES. Although we do not provide any futures information, the CFTC provides an excellent description of the limitations of hypothetical trades and, therefore, we are providing it to you:
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
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